WolfeNotes.com

No Rain In October – Little Rain On The Horizon

Climate Driven Extreme Weather Leads To Drought Emergency

Getting Warm. Source: Rutgers, State Climatologist Robinson. Presented at DEP drought hearing (8/25/10)

The chart above was from a DEP drought hearing back in 2010.

The Murphy DEP held a public hearing today on whether to issue a drought warning, see:

• Unprecedented Dry Spell and Declining Water Storage Supplies Prompt Virtual Public Hearing on Statewide Water Supply Drought Warning

The hearing began with an eye opening briefing by DEP on current drought and water supply conditions and by State Climatologist Robinson on record low rainfall and high temperatures. It was virtually identical to his 2010 presentation (see above chart).

There was no rainfall in the entire month of October!  There is now a 10 inch statewide rainfall deficit. (I will post the presentation when DEP does – here it is, watch.)

Curiously, Robinson attributed those extreme record breaking conditions to a “La Niña pattern” and changes to the jet stream – but he never once attributed the most significant factor, which is the climate emergency.

Climate scientists have been warning about exactly this kind of extreme weather for decades.

The DEP virtual hearing was attended by about 250 people, who provided over an hour of comments to DEP.

Several commenters stated that DEP was too slow to respond to the emerging drought and should have issued public advisories and mandatory water conservation restrictions months ago.

Commenters urged the DEP to recommend that the Governor declare a drought emergency now. That would empower DEP to mandate both supply and demand management options, like mandatory water conservation and curtailment of non-essential water uses, like watering lawns, golf courses, car washes, et al.

I asked a series of questions, mostly focused on the climate (time 55:30), water quality, public health, and ecological implications of the drought. DEP is doing very little to reduce these risks and impacts, and there is very little public awareness about them. (time 36:45)

I again provided recommendations from a performance Audit conducted by the State of California. They found that California regulators failed to incorporate climate science into the water supply forecasts and plans. They also found that drought preparation was inadequate. DEP repeats both errors.

• DWR Has Not Adequately Ensured That Its Water Supply Forecasts Account for the Effects of Climate Change

• DWR Must Do More to Prepare for the Impact of More Severe Droughts on the State Water Project’s Operations

For the full Audit, see:

https://www.auditor.ca.gov/reports/2022-106/index.html

During a drought, DEP can direct water purveyors to shift water supplies from one system to another. This raises serious issues that we saw in the Flint water emergency, where the change in the source water can leach and scour contaminants like lead out of the water distribution lines.

I criticized DEP’s failure to mandate the water purveyors implement the “Asset Management Plans”,  particularly with respect to stopping leaks, which waste millions of gallons of water each day.

Much of NJ’s water supply comes from rivers.  During a drought, from 75 – 95% of the flow of NJ rivers is treated industrial and municipal wastewater from sewage treatment plants. These low flows increase the concentrations of pollutants in the source water to unsafe levels, as drinking water treatment does not remove all chemicals and many are unregulated. Pumping that polluted river water to reservoirs creates additional problems, including algal blooms and the need for more treatment. (time 1:16:00)

Low stream and river flows also damage sensitive ecosystems.

Yet the DEP fails to impose regulatory protections to address these public health and ecological issues that are created by drought low flow conditions. Current DEP standards are based on outdated science about stream flows.

We ended our comments, third round, with a call for DEP to request that Governor Murphy declare a drought emergency. A dry winter will lead to truly dire conditions come spring.

Finally, retired DEP water supply planner Bob Kecskes made a very interesting point. He noted that a tiny fraction of water users, i.e. suburban homeowners, consume a disproportionate share of water demand due to watering suburban lawns. He compared their wasteful use (800 gallons per capita per day) with an urban home (50 gallons per capita per day).

Because all users must pay to build and maintain the drinking water infrastructure, the result is a huge subsidy from poor cities to wealthy suburbs, as urban residents pay for the profligate use of their suburban neighbors. This is another subtle form of environmental injustice.

Kesckes challenged DEP to conduct a study and adopt regulatory reforms.

Familiar Buzzwords For “Forest Stewardship” Could Justify Logging

US Forest Service Asked To Table Grant Proposal Pending Public Consultation

see 2 updates below

[Update #1: 11/9/24 – NJ Conservation groups support the proposal and strongly urged:

This plan will be solely about ecological restoration and contain no logging, just like Baldpate Mountain where there has been no logging, not even salvage after the tornado, and nothing but forest restoration and invasive and deer control. Please focus on the plethora of horrible stuff statewide – this is not one of them !

I guess you have to trust them. I don’t. And the Baldpate Mountain project is a mess, with industrial fencing of acres of lovely meadow, with very little maintenance, leading to overgrown invasives, not forest. ~~~ end update]

At their October 17, 2024 regular meeting, NJ Highlands Council Executive Director Ben Spinelli briefed the Council on a grant application recently submitted to the US Forest Service (USFS).

The Council is seeking a USFS grant to support a $1.46 million proposal to develop a “Forest Management Plan” for the 35,000 acre forested Newark Watershed.

Having witnessed the destructive logging that is justified by the slogans “forest management” and “forest stewardship” – and how government grant funds promote these abuses without any public awareness – alarm bells went off in my head.

So I immediately filed an Open Public Records Act (OPRA) request for the grant application to understand what the Council was seeking to do to these forests.

The Council delayed responding for 2 weeks past the legal deadline and finally provided the USFS grant application documents today. The needless delay heightened my skepticism.

Based upon a very rapid review of those documents, there are some red flags:

1) While it contains some good stuff (e.g rare plant inventory, just 10 acres of tree plantings) there is the usual abuse of “stewardship” and “treatments” based on forest health, invasive species, creation of habitat, and restoration. So this is more than study, data collection and assessment, it includes management (logging?)

2) It was supported by the NJ DEP State Forester and deemed consistent with the NJ Forest Action Plan (which promotes all kinds of abuse).

3) The proposal goes out of its way to claim that the DEP conservation easement and deed restrictions on Newark Watershed Lands do NOT restrict development of a Forest Stewardship Plan.

4) It duplicates DEP responsibilities for water quality related monitoring and data collection.

5) It seems like this is a project from Michael Van Clef – I invite anyone to take a field tour of Baldpate Mountain in Hopewell for an example of his work. (I noticed that the proposal included a fenced in area to prevent deer browse. Take a look at how that’s worked at Baldpate!)

6) There is no evidence that I saw showing that there was any consultation with conservation groups, the public, tribes, or the local and county governments.

Based upon this rapid assessment, I reached out to USFS to request that this grant proposal be tabled pending adequate public participation and scientific peer review.

I strongly urge you to join this request – we may be able to nip this in the bud and prevent harms:

Dear US Forest Service:

I am writing regarding a grant proposal recently submitted by the NJ Highlands Council, titled:

“Partnership for a comprehensive forest stewardship plan and water quality in the Newark Watershed”

The proposal responds to a solicitation from the USFS:

“USDA Forest Service Eastern Region, State, Private, and Tribal Forestry Fiscal Year 2025 – Landscape Scale Restoration Competitive Process”

I filed a public records request with the Council to obtain relevant documents and received a reply today.

As you know, the management of NJ’s forests is a matter of extreme public interest – particularly Highlands forests – as evidenced by NJ Senate Environment Committee Chairman Bob Smith’s creation of a legislative Forest Management Task Force. You may recall that Senator Smith was prime sponsor of the Highlands Act, which was based upon a USFS 2002 Report on Highlands forests.

After a year of public deliberations, that Task Force issued its Report and recommendations, which are currently pending legislative review and policy development.

Given the priority of the various forestry issues, pending Legislative policy development regarding forest management, and the absence of meaningful public consultation by the Highlands Council in developing the subject grant proposal – including tribal and conservation group consultation – I urge the USFS to table consideration of this grant application at this time, pending adequate public participation and scientific peer review.

I am copying Chairman Smith and DEP Commissioner LaTourette in hopes of their intervention to slow this project down and allow public participation and scientific peer review.

Respectfully.

*Bill Wolfe

*retired DEP planner and former member of NJ Gov. McGreevey’s Highlands Task Force and drafter of the NJ Highlands Act.

c: Senator Smith

Senator McKeon

DEP Commissioner LaTourette

Highlands Council Ex. Director Ben Spinelli

[Update #2 – 11/10/24 – Here is my reply to NJ conservationists who support this project:

“since you brought it up, I checked up on the Baldpate performance. I wrote about these problems a decade ago, see:

http://www.wolfenotes.com/2014/11/whats-up-with-baldpate-mountain-reforestation-project/

Here are excerpts from Mercer County Parks Report – were these mistakes ever admitted by Van Clef and are these mistakes being repeated in Newark?:

“Plant Stewardship Index Survey and Report Ted Stiles Preserve at Baldpate Mountain *Public Version

The study confirms my layman’s observations  and criticisms (see page 44 – 46) – so even if you agree that reforestation is an appropriate management of the meadow (which I don’t), the project is a failure.

I restate the Mercer County Report findings in full (boldface are mine):

Large Reforestation Exclosure:

This is the second, larger reforestation exclosure. Maintenance as turf ceased in 2010, and the area was fenced and planted with native trees and forbs.

The area showed substantially poorer sapling growth than the small exclosure.This is attributable to the significant breeches in the exclosure fence.Deer sign was conspicuous throughout the area.

Much of the sapling regeneration in this area is white ash. Other tree recruitment appears to be from nearby trees, mostly wind-dispersed species.

The ground layer is dominated by Japanese honeysuckle, Japanese stiltgrass, and other weedy, primarily non-native species. Common milkweed and wrinkleleaf goldenrod are the most common native forbs.

Autumn olive has largely been controlled by herbicide. Multiflora rose is severely affected by rose-rosette disease.

An interesting occurrence of black cohosh was found, flowering, inside the fence. The nearest population outside the fence is approximately 30 meters away.

Stewardship Discussion

A few observations were made that pertain to deer fencing and afforestation. These are not intended to second-guess any existing practices (which were structured in part by funder approaches and time constraints), but to build on observation to inform future approaches.

1. Most of the saplings appeared to be natural recruits. Given adequate protection from deer browse, trees have recruited quite readily. Given that survivorship of planted tree stock appears quite low, this calls into question the practice of introducing trees to afforestation sites (at least where thorough site prep and supplemental watering are not feasible), as opposed to allowing trees to recruit naturally.

2. Exclosures should be managed with a mowed perimeter inside or outside the fence so that the fence can be regularly inspected for breeches and easily repaired should damage to the fence occur.

3. The survey found low diversity in the sapling cohort, and a high degree of invasive plant colonization of the ground layer. Might an alternate restoration approach, a type of long-term managed succession, lead to a more diverse restored habitat than direct afforestation? That is to say, successfully restoring a habitat to a diverse meadow and shrub community may lay the groundwork for a structurally and species diverse forest in the longer term; taking a lawn or ruderal field and planting trees in it may not lead to the desired future condition of diverse native forest. 

Wolfe

Billions Spent On Campaign and GOTV, While System Is Overwhelmed And Racist

Predominately poor black district gets 2 machines, 5 workers, and long lines.

Nearby wealthy white district has 6 machines, surplus workers, and no line.

Charlie and I set out at 6:50 am today for our local polling station, less than a 5 minute walk away, Courtyard Apartments at Riverview. I think it was or still is a part of a larger public housing project run by the Philadelphia Housing Authority.

On arrival, there was  a line of 15 people outside the building. The line was a mixed demographic: by mostly older voters.

The doors opened promptly at 7 am, but it immediately became obvious that the operation was overwhelmed.

The supervisor walked through the line and asked the crowd if anyone wanted to work at the polling station. She soon was in a loud phone conversation with her managers, desperately demanding that they send her more staff.

It took over 10 minutes for the first voter to leave.

As I entered the room, I noticed that there were just 2 voting machines.

The pace picked up somewhat and I was out by 7:35, not too bad and much quicker than I feared.

But in that half hour, the line had grown considerably, I’d guess at least 50 – 75 people long. The demographic seemed to have shifted as well, to almost exclusively black people.

After voting, we headed for the usual dog run over at Old Swedes Historic Site, the oldest Church in Pennsylvania and the oldest building in Philadelphia.

The route there takes us by Shot Tower, another lovely Philadelphia historic landmark.

There is a polling station at Shot Tower Recreation Area.

As we strolled by on Carpenter Street, I could not help noticing glaring contrasts with my voting experience at Courtyard Apartments at Riverview.

All upscale white people. No lines. Several poll workers standing outside with nothing to do.

I asked voters and poll workers how many voting machines were inside. Reply: 6.

I asked to speak with a supervisor. A young woman with a clip board emerged and I informed her of the staff shortage at Riverview and the lack of voting machines (just 2). I asker her to contact superiors and reallocate resources.

Later, after about a half hour of fetch with Charlie at Old Swedes, we returned home past the Shot Tower polling station. I spoke with the same young woman and she said that they had sent several workers over to Riverside, and that they were now fully staffed.

But they still have just 2 voting machines and I assume the lines are even longer.

I thought the Democrats – who run Philadelphia and Pennsylvania State government – wanted to maximize turnout, particularly in black districts. Long lines obviously reduce turnout.

So why was the resource allocation to polling places so inequitable and inefficient? (and more like a Republican district in Georgia).

They spend billions on campaign ads and GOTV, but the actual polling places are totally swamped.

“Absolutely not“

People need to read this, in light of all the recent efforts to rehabilitate Bush EPA Administrator Christie Whitman.

6 YEARS after 9-11, after the facts and the science and the Inspector General Reports and the tragic first responder deaths all were revealed, she STILL dug in and doubled down on her lies (PR Watch report):

“Was it wrong to try to get the city back on its feet as quickly as possible?” an exasperated Christine Todd Whitman asked members of Congress. The occasion was Whitman’s first appearance before the House subcommittee investigating her handling of New York air quality issues post-9/11, when she headed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

“Absolutely not,” she continued. “Safety was first and foremost, but we weren’t going to let the terrorists win.”

Did you get that?

“Absolutely not“?

“Safety” was never “first and foremost”. She lied. And continued to lie 6 YEARS after 9-11:

There are many critics of the EPA’s response to the admittedly unprecedented attacks. In August 2003, the EPA’s own inspector general reported that there was not “sufficient data and analyses” to claim — as Whitman did on September 18, 2001 — that New York’s air was “safe to breathe.” The inspector general also found that EPA statements were confusing even to experienced toxicologists, and may have contributed to low rates of respirator use among Ground Zero workers. In February 2006, federal judge Deborah Batts called Whitman’s statements post-9/11 “misleading” and “conscience shocking.” In June 2007, the Government Accountability Office identified serious, continuing problems with how Whitman’s EPA addressed indoor contamination in lower Manhattan.

The issue is more than academic. Since 2001, some 70 percent of Ground Zero workers — tens of thousands of people, many without health insurance — have had respiratory problems, including chronic illnesses, according to one medical study. Two deaths have been linked to World Trade Center dust, and reports of rare cancers are on the rise.

Yet in her Congressional testimony on June 25, 2007, Christie Whitman dismissed criticisms of her former agency as “misinformation, innuendo and outright falsehoods.”

In Whitman’s corrupt world, it is absolutely OK to lie to people – lies that resulted in the deaths of thousands of first responders, in order to keep Wall Street open.

Keep that in mind, as Whitman continues her disgraceful efforts at redemption.

We’ll never forget.

Mr. Trump has also said he would expand domestic drilling for oil and gas, although those are already at record levels under the Biden administration. That could mean expanding drilling permits in the Alaskan wilderness. And he has said he would revive and expand his first-term effort to cut back on federal regulations.

We thought we might provide some graphical data you might not read in the press or hear from environmental groups, who cheerlead the Biden Administration’s so called “climate” policies (hit the links for raw data and explanatory US EIA Reports).

According to US Energy Information Administration data (see below), the Biden Administration set records for US oil and gas production, while coal exports are significant and increasing, as US domestic coal consumption declines but remains significant.

The most recent EPA data (2022) shows US greenhouse gas emissions increased.

That EPA data does not account for the emissions from huge US exports of LNG and increasing exports of coal  (or the GHG emissions from the US proxy war in Ukraine or US supplied genocide in Palestine).

Source: US Energy Information Administration

Source: US Energy Information Administration