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Note To Climate Scientist Michael Mann

November 5th, 2022 No comments

False Optimism Is Worse Than Reality

I pay little attention to the annual UN climate conferences, but listen to BBC overnight. Last night, they did an hour show on the COP 27 climate conference in Egypt, which included an interview with leading US climate scientist (or should I say “spokesperson”?) Michale Mann. BBC previously set up the conference in this overview).

Let’s just say that I was appalled and embarrassed for Dr. Mann, beginning with the BBC reporter’s mis-affiliation of him as from University of Pennsylvania (instead of Penn State), which he failed to correct. So, after walking the dog this morning, I fired off this note to him.

I find that it’s always best to get the bile off the chest and out of the system, or else it can ruin an otherwise gorgeous day in the desert.

Dear Dr. Mann:

I listened to your BBC interview this morning, from my winter home in the Sonoran desert of southern Arizona.

I spent my 40 year career in environmental policy – in and out of government in ENGO – and am now retired, so please accept these comments as they are offered in good faith from an advocate of climate science.

Your misplaced optimism was obviously offered as a messaging strategy.

It crossed all lines and conflated science, policy, and politics.

Clearly, it is indefensible based on facts and science.

It does not help when such blatant spin is offered up by a scientist. That only feeds skepticism and cynicism. (and I am NOT arguing that scientists should stay out of the policy debate. I advocate just the opposite and have done so repeatedly for years and criticized scientists’ failure to speak out).

Your praise of the Paris framework and the US/China bilateral agreement was absurd, as they undermined the UN and formed the basis of the “voluntary” national commitments that have so flagrantly failed. Obama destroyed any hope of global progress.

To do this in light of the recent “no credible path to 1.5” report is unforgivable.

Your off topic political forays into geo-politics – i.e your references to the Ukrainian US proxy war and to US hostility to China as based on that war were absurd and false. US hostility to China preceded that war and began under the Obama administration’s “strategic pivot” to the Pacific.

In reality, Biden’s approach to climate (just as bad as Obama’s “all of the above”) and his recently released US National Security Strategy are disasters for climate progress. They destroyed the necessary cooperative engagement of BOTH Russia and China.

I was appalled by that interview.

Please stick to the science, because your policy and political thoughts are ill informed and damaging.

Bill Wolfe

FYI, my bio is here:

http://www.wolfenotes.com/about/

[Update – hahahahaha! Mann replied instantly, by auto-reply: (my emphasis)

Your email has been received. Due to the high volume of emails received, however, I cannot promise that it will be read or replied to. 


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Murphy DEP Rammed Through Controversial Pinelands Logging Plan To Evade Pending “No Net Loss” Of Trees Policy

November 4th, 2022 No comments

Pinelands Commissioner Lohbauer Exposes The Real DEP Motivation

Murphy is strong arming the Pinelands Commission Just as Bad as Christie

The people who love the Pinelands must contact Gov. Murphy (609-292-6000) and demand that he veto the minutes of the Pinelands Commission to block implementation of this plan. This must happen soon, before Nov. 21.

According to NJ Pinelands Commissioner Mark Lohbauer, the Murphy DEP rammed though approval of their controversial logging plan to avoid pending new requirements that would impose a “no net loss” of trees policy.

The Murphy administration put a full court press on the Commission to approve the plan – which would cut over 2.4 million trees, “thin” 1,300 acres, and create a 13 mile 50 foot wide clearcut called a “firebreak” – including a letter from DEP Commissioner LaTourette that both the Commission and DEP have kept secret and refuse to divulge.

Controversial recent Murphy political appointments to the Commission voted to approve the DEP plan, thus exposing their loyalty to the Gov. over protection of the Pinelands.

According to Pinelands Commissioner Lohbauer, DEP’s plan could never be feasible or approved under the pending Pinelands Commission’s “no net loss” of trees policy.

It would be cost prohibitive if not technically infeasible for DEP to mitigate the cutting of 2.4 million trees in the Pinelands – land availability alone could constrain a 1,300 acre reforestation mitigation project.

In a scathing criticism of DEP’s plan in which Lohbauer explained in detail why he voted NO to stop the DEP logging plan, he wrote: (scroll down to point #10)

At the Pinelands Commission, we are in the process of deliberating a “no net loss” policy for trees which, although not yet in place, would be completely contradicted by this project. 

In the end, the injury to the carbon sequestering ability of this forest was my primary objection to this project.

Lohbauer is exercising exactly the same leadership and integrity as when he publicly explained why he voted NO on the controversial South Jersey Gas pipeline through Pinelands forests advanced by the Christie administration.

Obviously, DEP rammed this project through the Pinelands Commission before the “no net loss” policy could be adopted.

In addition to evading the pending Pinelands “no net loss” policy, the DEP logging plan conflicts with DEP’s own climate science regarding the need to increase carbon sequestration and storage in NJ’s forests (see Chapter 7 on Carbon Sequestration).

DEP has yet to adopt policies and regulations to implement their science and recommendations on carbon sequestration and forestry. But it is highly unlikely that any new DEP climate policy on forestry would allow the massive logging DEP just rammed through in the Pinelands.

Finally, the DEP’s logging plan also conflicts with the likely policy and legislative recommendations on forestry management, climate, and logging public lands of Senator Smith’s Forestry Task Force.

Gov. Christie was correctly denounced by Pinelands supporters for politicizing and strong arming the Pinelands Commission to ram through extremely destructive projects like the South Jersey Gas Pipeline.

Now, Gov. Murphy is doing EXACTLY the same thing – yet the watchdogs in the conservation and environmental communities are not barking, they are cheerleading in support of the Gov. and DEP.

The timing of this DEP logging scheme with respect to huge pending changes in climate and forestry policy – alone  – should have been sufficient reason for the Pinelands Commission to reject the DEP logging plan.

The DEP logging plan should never have been approved and the DEP and their cheerleaders in the conservation community should the ashamed of themselves.

The people who love the Pinelands must contact Gov. Murphy (609-292-6000) and demand that he veto the minutes of the Pinelands Commission to block implementation of this plan. This must happen soon, before Nov. 21.

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Murphy DEP Proposes New Air Pollution Cancer And Health Risk Screening For Polluters – Ignores Cumulative Impacts And Environmental Justice Law

November 3rd, 2022 No comments

IMG_6915

I’ve long criticized DEP’s air pollution control program for multiple flaws dealing with public health risks and emissions of hazardous air pollutants, e.g. see:

This is an extremely complex and arcane set of scientific and regulatory issues, but the public now has an opportunity to weigh in to generate pressure for DEP to ratchet down on polluters to reduce emissions, particularly in the environmental justice communities.

The Murphy DEP just proposed revisions to the DEP’s methods for analyzing the public health risks of air pollution during the air permit process.

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (Department) is seeking public comment on a draft revised Risk Screening Worksheet for Long-Term Carcinogenic and Noncarcinogenic Effects and Short-Term Effects (Worksheet).  This use of the Worksheet in the risk assessment process is described in Section 2.0 of Technical Manual 1003, “Guidance on Preparing a Risk Assessment for Air Contaminant Emissions.”

The draft revised Worksheet, Notice of Opportunity for Public Comment, and a Fact Sheet outlining all revisions are available for review on the Department’s website at http://www.state.nj.us/dep/aqpp/ under “Program Update” and http://www.nj.gov/dep/baqp under “What’s New.”

Comments may be submitted until the close of business December 5, 2022. Please submit all comments by December 5, 2022 electronically to NJDEP-BAQP@dep.nj.gov or to the mailing address in the Notice of Opportunity for Public Comment.

Here are my comments:

Dear DEP – please accept the following comment on the DEP’s draft Risk Screening Worksheet for carcinogenic and non carcinogenic compounds:

1. Increasing stack height and relocation of the emission source should not be considered acceptable risk reduction measures. Pollution prevention followed by SOTA/MACT technology must be enforced, not these false solutions.

2. The Pollution Prevention Act authorized the DEP to enforce Pollution Prevention Plans in DEP air permits. The DEP has failed to implement that authority. DEP must begin to enforce PP plans in air permits. The risk screening process can become an opportunity to do so, yet it fails to do so.

3. The permit applicant should not be allowed to conduct a “Refined Risk Assessment”. That analysis should be conducted only by the DEP professionals, who are objective and do not have a profit driven motive to manipulate the analysis.

4. The spreadsheet is not user friendly and it is virtually impossible for the lay public to understand it or use it or comment on it.

5. The entire risk screening and risk assessment methodology fails to incorporate cumulative risks associated with multiple chemicals, multiple exposure pathways, and synergistic effects.

6. The methodology fails to consider disproportionate community burdens and exposures. The methodology fails to incorporate community vulnerability and susceptibility or otherwise incorporate the standards and policies of the Environmental Justice law or DEP’s proposed environmental justice regulations.

7. The DEP’s risk “standards” do not include mandatory risk reduction requirements or a basis for DEP permit denial when risks exceed “acceptable risk” levels.

8. The proposal appears to be reliant on modeling and fence line air quality and contaminant monitoring, as opposed to actual levels of exposure at the site of sensitive receptors.

9. The applicability of the risk screening methodology is extremely narrow – limited pollutants and sources. Only major sources of hazardous air pollution and certain other limited sources are required to conduct the risk screening. It should be applied far more broadly to all emissions and there need to be mandatory risk reduction measures to implement the risk findings.

The above are major policy, regulatory, and scientific flaws that must be addressed.

Respectfully,

Bill Wolfe

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DEP And Conservationists Challenged The Credibility Of The Wrong Person – I Do My Homework

November 3rd, 2022 No comments

Pushback Includes A Fact Check Of Criticisms From A National News Reporter

I’ve written extensively documenting how DEP and conservationists have made repeated false claims to deny and minimize the impacts of DEP’s Pinelands logging plan they supported, as well as to intimidate, suppress, and otherwise dissuade critics of that DEP plan.

In a continuation of that campaign of deceit, today I received a highly unusual “fact check” of criticisms of the DEP plan by a national news reporter (some which I never made).

I never or rarely share conversations with reporters, but in this case I will and for 2 reasons: 1) to illustrate the pushback and 2) to provide a documentary record in the event the story is ever published (which I doubt at this point).

I can’t recall ever having gotten that kind of pushback before. Just the opposite: many times, reporters have told me of the smears and attacks that the DEP press office and mangers launched against me (unethical leaker and whistleblower, “disgruntled former employee”, etc.) They backfired and the attacks actually bolstered my credibility in their eyes. But that pushback came from political hacks at DEP, not the conservation community, as is now this case.

From this reporter’s tone and skeptical questions, it is obvious that he was told that the critics were lying – see – reporter’s questions in boldface and my replies in red text:

_ Where does it say that the cut trees would be harvested and sold as lumber? I’ve skimmed through documents but haven’t seen that yet. Who would get the money from the logged trees, and has anyone put an estimate on how much they might bring commercially?

Here is text from the DEP plan approved by Commission – see section on “Carbon” – it says “forest products” – that is a commercial term and includes lumber. DEP made no commitment to the “harvesting” method used or disposition of the cut trees, and the Pinelands Commission imposed no enforceable conditions on that. Emile has been duped. Read the text:
“The proposed project will significantly reduce the forest carbon pools throughout the site overall due to the removal of forest overstory. In particular, the flux in carbon before and after each of the treatments will change primarily from live aboveground carbon (removal of trees) to the dead wood pool (increase in slash, tops, etc.) due to harvesting activities. In addition, removed carbon may be utilized and stored by long -term forest products, stored within landfills, converted to energy, or may be left on site to be recycled back to the system depending on the implementation contractor and method of harvesting used to carry out the treatments.
Note: I also should have but failed to mention to this reporter that DEP’s “carbon analysis” included data on “merchantable cordwood”. That’s commercial sale of cut trees. Here’s 1 of 4 tables of that data:
Screen Shot 2022-10-27 at 3.10.11 PM
_ There is mention of Ed Lloyd estimating 2.4 million trees would be removed in total. Does anyone from DEP, FFS or Pinelands Commission acknowledge that figure or put forth one of their own?
I calculated and confirmed Ed Lloyd’s 2.4 million trees cut. It is calculated by multiplying the density reduction (trees per acre) by the number of acres, as follows:
(density before cut – density after cut) X (total acres) = Total trees cut
(2075-204) X (1,041 acres) = 1,947,711 trees
(1,940 – 74) X  (255 acres_ = 475,830 trees
Here is text from Pinelands approval document
Approximately 1,041 acres of pine-dominated forest type will be thinned twice. The applicant proposes that this acreage will be “thinned low and from below.” This type of thinning cuts and removes those trees that are the shortest in height and smallest in diameter. The applicant indicates that these trees generally act as forest fire “ladder fuels” by connecting the plants and shrubs on the ground with the upper canopy of taller trees. The proposed “low and from below” thinning will reduce the forest from 2,075 trees per acre to 204 trees per acre. Canopy cover will be reduced from 68% to 43%.
[Note: that density reduction is a 90% tree removal rate, for a total of 1,947,711 trees.
Approximately 255 acres of pine-shrub oak forest type will be subject to a variable density thinning treatment. This thinning will reduce the forest from 1,940 trees per acre to 74 trees per acre. Canopy cover will be reduced from 74% to 30%.
[Note: that density reduction is a 96% tree removal rate, for a total of 475,830 trees.]
Approximately 8 acres of pine-shrub oak forest type along the western outside edge of the Allen Road firebreak will be subject to a “feathered” variable density thinning treatment. The applicant indicates that this type of thinning creates a gradual transition in tree density from zero trees per acre created by the proposed forest firebreak to 33 trees per acre for a distance back from the proposed forest firebreak of 75 feet. Canopy cover will be reduced from 74% to 19% by the “feathered” variable density thinning treatment. The applicant indicates that this “feathered” treatment is intended to reduce the harsh forest edges and create a more visually appealing aesthetic between the proposed forest firebreak and the variable density thinning treatment.”
_ In the application document, I see mentions of herbicide use, but no mention of groundwater impacts. Did anyone raise this concern, and did applicant or commission address those concerns?
I saw nothing about monitoring groundwater, surface water, or biota (plants and animals) for herbicide impacts.
I raised the issue to the Pinelands Commission at their last meeting after they voted to approve. So did Georgina Shanley. I was told that DEP agreed to reduce about 225 acres, but retained option to treat over 1,000 acres. Pinelands Commissioner Lohbauer raised the issue as well in describing his opposition. His words:
“In this case I don’t believe there was a good basis to approve the Forest Service’s application. This is the same one that I had opposed last December, and Emile is right—the Service did modify their proposed application of herbicides in the project. However, they did not agree to eliminate them, nor did they agree to avoid the use of glyphosate (“RoundUp”) which I consider unsafe at any application. Moreover, the restrained use of herbicides was conditioned upon“if practical,” meaning that were they to decide that the mechanical approach were not working, they could revert to the use of herbicides without further review by the Pinelands Commission. Yet this was not my primary objection.”

I also provided this additional note and photo to provide a little pushback of my own:

There has been an unprecedented and ugly pushback by DEP and PPA/NJCF on the impacts of the DEP plan. If you are interested, I compiled and fact checked specific DEP and PPA/NJCF claims in a post yesterday: (my prior note to you documented the false claims on reduction canopy cover and leaving the cut trees on site (recycled). Here are the other major misleading claims:

http://www.wolfenotes.com/2022/11/conservationists-walk-back-the-lies-they-told-to-defend-their-support-of-deps-pinelands-logging-plan/

I thought you might be interested in the attached photo. It was provided in a presentation to the Pinelands Commission in March 2021 by John Cecil, as an positive example of a “thinned forest”. This is the landscape DEP foresters desire. Cecil made that presentation as head of forestry at NJ Audubon. Cecil is now DEP Assistant Commissioner for Parks and Forests. My OPRA to DEP documented that Cecil was involved in the Pinelands Plan. That is a violation of State ethics laws, which mandate recusal for involvement in projects prior to State service. I filed a complaint to the Ethics Commission on that – it is pending. Here is Cecil’s Pinelands presentation: (hit links or cut and paste)

Forest Conservation – NJ Pinelands 

https://www.nj.gov/pinelands/home/presentations/NJ%20Pinelands%20Forests

These people attacked the credibility of the wrong person – I do my homework. Take a look at the landscape DEP wants to create in Pinelands forests and conservationists support (savanna)”

Screen Shot 2022-10-24 at 7.25.28 PM

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Conservationists Walk Back The Lies They Told To Defend Their Support of DEP’s Pinelands Logging Plan

November 2nd, 2022 No comments

Lies Exposed On Reduction Of Canopy Cover, Wildfires, And Removal Of Trees

Conservationists Fabricate New Rationales To Support DEP Forestry Plan

Conservationists have shut down media coverage and public opposition to the DEP’s plan

Is This The “Thin” Pinelands Forest You Support? This Is What DEP Is Trying To Create

Source: John Cecil, NJ Audubon presentation to Pinelands Commission (March 2021). Cecil is now Assistant Commissioner at DEP overseeing forestry.

“Thinned Pinelands forest”. Source: John Cecil, NJ Audubon presentation to Pinelands Commission (March 2021). Cecil is now Assistant Commissioner at DEP overseeing forestry.

Rather than manipulate the forests, [managers] should stand back and let natural processes determine the density of trees, which species are best suited to the new realities, and watch the results.

Ultimately, we cannot manipulate (by logging or burning) our way out of the current climate warming scenario. Our best alternative is to preserve natural processes, not museum pieces. ~~~ George Wuerthner, 11/2/22)

This is a followup on my prior posts – all of which I stand by:

I clarified and corrected the honest error I made – which was based on the limited information I had at the time as a result of the Pinelands Commission’s denial of my OPRA public records request I filed in August before they voted to approve the DEP plan – about DEP’ failure to consider carbon. But, as I noted, the Pinelands Commission failed to consider carbon, see:

(Note: After the Commission approved the DEP plan, I submitted the exact same OPRA request to DEP, which they responded to but heavily redacted:

Screen Shot 2022-10-24 at 12.10.07 PM

I guess I wrote the kind of analysis that Sierra Club’s ED denounces as “inflammatory and disrespectful messaging“.

Things have only gotten worse since I wrote all that and its looks like the conservationists have shut down any media coverage and silenced public or environmental group opposition to the DEP’s plan.

I apologize for the length of this post, and some repetition of prior posts, but these issues must be properly documented.

After I exposed their falsehoods (based on the text of DEP’s plan and the Pinelands Commission’s approval documents), conservationists have walked back and even directly reversed their prior claims in support of the DEP plan, while fabricating new rationales and moving the goalposts to continue to support DEP’s plan.

Their U-Turn in the Pinelands reminds me of former NJ Audubon CEO Eric Stiles, who once advocated for protection of large blocks of intact Highlands forests and maximization of canopy cover. Stiles reversed that position and supported fragmentation and logging of those same forests, see:

It’s good for conservationists to openly disagree about interpretations of science and policy objectives and to debate strategies and tactics in dealing with government agencies and politicians. I welcome those healthy and necessary debates.

But it is not OK for conservationists to fabricate; lie; mislead; shift arguments; manipulate, exclude and fail to warn the public; and even personally attack critics of a harmful DEP “forest management plan” that conservation groups signed off on after years of behind closed doors meetings with DEP and with little to no public awareness or involvement.

Using their own words, let me expose just a handful of the most egregious falsehoods that conservation leaders used to support the DEP forestry plan, that they have been forced to walk back.

In addition, my NJ sources tell me that NJ media are being told a falsehood that herbicide use was eliminated, when it was only slightly reduced (see below).

1) Claim: There will be “no reduction in canopy cover” – to “reduction in canopy cover is necessary and good”

Longtime investigative reporter and columnist Bob Hennelly first broke this story in NJ media, see:

DEP flat out lied about impacts on canopy cover, making this factually false claim:

Tree removal will focus on the smallest snow-bent pitch pine trees first, and an intact canopy will be maintained across the site.”

Emile DeVito of NJCF made a similarly misleading and false statement in an email to me. Emile wrote:

Hi Bill. This is not a terrible as it sounds. The logging is nearly all “thinning from the ground up” to remove lower levels of fuel load, and leaving all the mulch in the forest to decompose, very little wood removal,  and the firebreak is 30 feet of clearing  for meadow on each side of the narrow sand road. Pinelands Commission got some improvements regarding herbicides and also vernal pond and rare snake considerations. Way bigger things to fight about In the Pines,  for example the unresolved Wetlands violation at Whitesbog and the proposal by JJ White company to create more modernized cranberry bags in the historic district.

Carleton Montgomery of PPA made multiple and similarly false and misleading statements. Carleton wrote:

We worked on this one for years and believe our concerns were met by DEP in the end, so the project is reasonable and will have no harmful ecological impacts if carried out according to the final application (attached).  We dug into this one and stayed with it over a long period of time and think that what’s being said to attack it is inaccurate and misleading.

We think key points in summary are:  (a) This is thinning, not clearcutting, and the vegetation being removed consists of shrubs and very small, crowded trees, so the resulting forest structure will be a healthy pine barrens forest (you can see this in the proposal by the fact that the tree basal area and canopy area both change little despite the removal of many individual plants) [Note: test this claim agains the photo above of a “thinned” Pinelands forest]; (b) DEP agreed to changes to prevent this work from opening up these areas to ORV use, a big issue for any forestry; (c) the roadside work will result in meadows, not wider roads, that are good (and rarer) native habitat in their own right; (d) DEP agreed to vastly reduce the potential herbicide use, and we understand why they want to be able to use herbicide in the limited ways proposed; and (e) the wildfire issue is very real, and it is reasonable for DEP to take steps like this to reduce the risk to the public and their own fire firefighters through management that also does no harm to native ecology.

In sum, we don’t think the project is unreasonable or ecologically harmful, and it’s certainly not Armageddon for the Pinelands!

Anonymous talking points widely distributed via email to dissuade opponents by NJ conservationists made similar misleading and statements (very close to verbatim Carleton and Emile):

“Please do not oppose this. This is not a logging plan. This is thinning from the ground up and a firebreak that will help with ecological fire management. There is virtually no change to the canopy. The canopy won’t be opened, and there is virtually no removal of wood. … The Pinelands Commission staff worked hard to get some important modifications to this proposal – modifications that PPA and NJCF have been recommending.

They all knew they were either lying or spinning to cover up their quiet involvement in and approval of this logging scheme and failure to warn the public about it.

In direct contradiction to the above falsehoods, here’s what the Pinelands Commission’s approval document states about reduction in canopy cover, facts which I forced them to acknowledge publicly on the record in my testimony to the Commission on October (emphases and Notes are mine):

“Approximately 1,041 acres of pine-dominated forest type will be thinned twice. The applicant proposes that this acreage will be “thinned low and from below.” This type of thinning cuts and removes those trees that are the shortest in height and smallest in diameter. The applicant indicates that these trees generally act as forest fire “ladder fuels” by connecting the plants and shrubs on the ground with the upper canopy of taller trees. The proposed “low and from below” thinning will reduce the forest from 2,075 trees per acre to 204 trees per acre. Canopy cover will be reduced from 68% to 43%.

[Note: that density reduction is a 90% tree removal rate, for a total of 1,947,711 trees.]

Approximately 255 acres of pine-shrub oak forest type will be subject to a variable density thinning treatment. This thinning will reduce the forest from 1,940 trees per acre to 74 trees per acre. Canopy cover will be reduced from 74% to 30%.

[Note: that density reduction is a 96% tree removal rate, for a total of 475,830 trees.]

Approximately 8 acres of pine-shrub oak forest type along the western outside edge of the Allen Road firebreak will be subject to a “feathered” variable density thinning treatment. The applicant indicates that this type of thinning creates a gradual transition in tree density from zero trees per acre created by the proposed forest firebreak to 33 trees per acre for a distance back from the proposed forest firebreak of 75 feet. Canopy cover will be reduced from 74% to 19% by the “feathered” variable density thinning treatment. The applicant indicates that this “feathered” treatment is intended to reduce the harsh forest edges and create a more visually appealing aesthetic between the proposed forest firebreak and the variable density thinning treatment.”

2) Claim: Thinned forest wildfire burns are “low and slow” (temperature and rate) which protects forest – is now thinned burns are fast and hot, and that’s all good;

In my reader comments on the Hennelly story (and in several other places), I noted that logging that reduces canopy cover increases sunlight on the forest floor and increases wind penetration, which in turn dry our soils and vegetation and makes them MORE combustable and prone to wildfire, making wildfire risks WORSE.

I also noted that the current science questions the benefits of forest thinning in managing wildfire (I relied on the science in a letter to President Biden from over 200 scientists opposing thinning as a wildfire management approach. Commissioner Lohbauer cited the same science in his criticism below).

On October 24, Emile DeVito wrote this, which not only walks back his initial claims about forest canopy, but is a U-turn in the rationale for the DEP wildfire logging:

This proposal is OK. The globally rare Pitch Pine -Scrub Oak community that is the subject of this plan will BENEFIT from this ” thinning from the ground up “. This characteristic Upland plant community of the New Jersey Pine Barrens is not supposed to have a 75% closed canopy, which has resulted from over a century wildfire suppression. Huge numbers of rare species and common food web insects and small vertebrates, incl. various low growing plants, moths, lizards, snakes, and birds have declined because of wildfire suppression, and in the Pine Barrens  they need a little more sunlight on the forest floor.

True, this extra sunlight could create a hotter natural fire, which would actually be GOOD, and the fire break will allow firefighters to allow natural wildfires to burn in the interior instead of making New Roads into wetlands and other sensitive areas trying to attack the fire directly and putting themselves in severe danger. The thinning will be a little bit more aggressive along the edges of the meadow-like fire break, again creating a sunny habitat that can be repeatedly prescribe-burned and actually behave like the original fire-dominated Pine Barrens savannas with huge pines and an open canopy filled with rare species beneath. What matters here is the follow-up work for the next 20 years after this forestry mowing is done. Certainly we have to make sure that the DEP does not shift its priorities away from this project and ignore the follow-up work that needs to be done for it to fulfill its objectives. This project will cost tons of money, probably $500 to $1,000 per acre or more, and there is no way that it is being driven by monetary gains. There might be a few pine trees cut down that are big enough to be used to create mulch, but almost all of this material has to be left in the forest because it is worthless. Herbicides will probably not have to be used at all, unless something like Chinese Bush Clover sprouts up along some of the disturbed road edges. In other words, if they have to use herbicides at a later date, it will be for a good reason. The Pinelands Commission got some concessions that we advocated for , regarding rare snake habitat and wetlands and a bit of reduction in places where herbicides might be used.

Wow.

So the original lie that there would be no reduction in canopy cover has been repealed and has now shifted to reduction in canopy cover is a good thing!

“Low and slow” wildfire dynamics have become the opposite: “fast and hot”.

I actually tweeted a photo of a savanna landscape as kind of a joke – but Emile and DEP are not kidding: they actually want to create a savanna landscape!

Savanah coming to the NJ Pinelands?

Savanah coming to the NJ Pinelands?

3) Claim: all cut trees will be left on site and the carbon recycled.

Facts:  DEP’s actual plan, based on fuel reduction, is tree removal and sale of wood products, including “merchantable cordwood”, “forest products”, and “converted to energy”.

As DEP’s application approved by the Pinelands Commission’s a “cut and remove” plan, reveals that the trees that are cut will NOT all be left in the forest (and to do that would contradict DEP’s fuel reduction objectives:). Here’s the text from the DEP plan:

“The proposed project will significantly reduce the forest carbon pools throughout the site overall due to the removal of forest overstory. In particular, the flux in carbon before and after each of the treatments will change primarily from live aboveground carbon (removal of trees) to the dead wood pool (increase in slash, tops, etc.) due to harvesting activities. In addition, removed carbon may be utilized and stored by long -term forest products, stored within landfills, converted to energy, or may be left on site to be recycled back to the system depending on the implementation contractor and method of harvesting used to carry out the treatments.

4) Claim: “DEP agreed to vastly reduce herbicide use”.

Facts: DEP agreed to reduce use on a little over 200 acres. But Carleton makes no mention of the fact that over 1,000 acres still can be treated (with no water quality or ecological monitoring). This is not a “vast reduction”. It’s political cover.

5) Claim: DEP agreed to snake protections.

Facts: Rutgers snake experts were excluded from reviews of the DEP plan & DEP made no specific protections, a reality exposed by Commissioner Lohbauer (see below).

6) Claim: DEP agreed to provide buffers (80 feet) for wetlands, vernal ponds and T&E habitat.

Facts: DEP regulatory buffers to protect those sensitive natural resources are from 300 to 1,000 feet. DEP made no concession at all, but failed to enforce their own regulatory standards.

In addition to false and misleading claims to support the DEP plan, and providing new false rationales, the conservationists are totally ignoring key science and facts, like these:

7. The fact that there is No justification in reducing wildfire risk is being ignored

DEP stated that the logging is “badly needed”. (see Hennelly story)

In contrast, Pinelands Commissioner Doug Wallner, a retired National Park Service expert on wildfire, noted that the DEP plan failed to provide a justification and failed to consider the “no alternative” option. Wallner noted that he had reviewed the maps and that there was little of no people or property at risk or benefit from the logging and firebreak plan.

8. Flawed Carbon analysis being ignored

The Pinelands Commission did not consider any climate implications or carbon impacts. They claim that the CMP does not authorize that.

The DEP’s carbon analysis is flawed, see:

(BTW, how could DEP even conduct a carbon analysis when they made no commitment to the harvest methods and the disposition of the wood, which they explicitly say is influenced by the contractors (and Emile admits would cost from $500 – $1,000 per acre. In tight budget times and with no funding source, obviously Pinelands forests will be sacrificed to DEP’s staff salaries.);

9. Political Pressure was applied to the Pinelands Commission to approve the plan

Murphy DEP Commissioner LaTourette pressured the Pinelands Commission to approve the plan. Both DEP and the Pinelands Commission have refused to disclose his letter, see

Additional political pressures and considerations result from the fact that Gov. Murphy’s appointments (Matos and McCurry), who PPA and NJCF supported, both voted to approve the Murphy DEP plan, elevating loyalty to the Gov. over protection of the Pinelands.

The conservationists don’t want talk about any of that.

10. Pinelands Commissioner Lohbauer wrote this scathing criticism:

In conclusion, you don’t have to take my word for any of the above. Read Pinelands Commissioner Lohbauer’s criticism. He wrote (emphases mine):

“In this case I don’t believe there was a good basis to approve the Forest Service’s application. This is the same one that I had opposed last December, and Emile is right—the Service did modify their proposed application of herbicides in the project. However, they did not agree to eliminate them, nor did they agree to avoid the use of glyphosate (“RoundUp”) which I consider unsafe at any application. Moreover, the restrained use of herbicides was conditioned upon“if practical,” meaning that were they to decide that the mechanical approach were not working, they could revert to the use of herbicides without further review by the Pinelands Commission. Yet this was not my primary objection.

The application contained two projects: 13 miles of firebreak along Allen and Oswego Roads, and a separate project of thinning over 1,300 acres of forest in Bass River State park. The firebreak was occurring in a broad swath that included the most productive snake dens in the State—possibly the northeast region—for T&E snake species. These snake dens have been the subject of continuous study by Rutgers herpetologists as well as our own science staff at PC for 30 years. Last December I asked for the Rutgers herpetologists to be consulted by the Forest Service on their firebreak plan, because they had not been. It is not apparent to me that Rutgers was given the opportunity to participate in the revised firebreak plan that was before us last Friday. Nor did the revised plan include a specific protection for the snake dens, other than the Service would consult with the PC Executive Director in the event of contact with the dens. That seemed inadequate to me. Yet this was not my primary objection to the application.

Both the firebreak and the thinning projects were proposed as wildfire control measures, yet—as Commissioner Doug Wallner pointed out on Friday—there is no population center, housing development, or commercial area near the sites of the project activity. Wallner, who spent his career at the National Park Service working with local agencies like the NJ Forest Service on wildfire control, argued that there was no reason to pursue these projects since there was no population at risk of wildfire harm that could be protected by this project. Rather than vote for it, he abstained. I certainly agreed with him on that point, yet this was not my primary objection.

The thinning project was proposed to be performed over more than 1,300 acres in Bass River State Forest. For 1,100 acres they proposed to remove 90% of the trees. For the remainder they proposed to remove 96% of them. Ed Lloyd calculated that this would be over 2.4 million trees. This thinning was intended as a wildfire protection measure, yet we learned at the Pinelands Climate Committee last year that thinning has not proven to be a useful wildfire control measure; if anything, it causes wildfires to burn hotter and more destructively.Leslie Sauer shared a paper by ecologist Chad Hanson on this subject ( https://grist.org/fix/opinion/forest-thinning-logging-makes-wildfires-worse/  ) and argued persuasively that pro forestation is a much better approach to wildfire management. I find it difficult to support thinning as a wildfire management practice generally, but particularly so in this case where: 

A number of T&E bird species including barred owl, would be impacted negatively by the tree cutting;

The plan called not only for cutting the trees, but for harvesting them as well, which is contrary to the good forestry practice of cutting and leaving trees in place;
At the Pinelands Commission, we are in the process of deliberating a “no net loss” policy for trees which, although not yet in place, would be completely contradicted by this project. 
In the end, the injury to the carbon sequestering ability of this forest was my primary objection to this project. I don’t believe that the work that the Forest Service proposes to do is either warranted by the circumstances, nor healthy for the flora and fauna of this forest. I opposed it, and I hope that there still remains some opportunity to prevent the Forest Service from moving forward with this now permitted, yet ill-planned project.”  ~~~ end Lohbauer

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