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Opportunities Lost

April 8th, 2014 No comments

Why Not?

Next time you’re plowing through your email and  reading those lame self congratulatory “victory!” press releases by so called bicycle advocates praising the Christie DoT for a bike lane press release, stop and think for a moment:

Think about all the Post Sandy multi-billion dollar reconstruction ongoing and think of the huge opportunities to rebuild a better community – stuff like this vision:

I was recently invited into a conversation that is taking place behind the scenes here among some San Franciscan progressives towards establishing a Municipal Bank. My first reaction is predictably skeptical but I decided to give it a bit of thought. I’ll never be a true believer in this kind of reform agenda, but I have to admit, holding out for a total transformation is pretty religious and I’m a very anti-religious guy.

So what could a Municipal Bank do? That’s the question I was asked in the context of what should it invest in—what kinds of economic activities could be engines of local development, in particular, should urban agriculture be part of that program? I had to say no to that, farming is never going to be on a scale in San Francisco that it could justify a big investment that needs to be returned with a profit. But given the horrible housing crisis and the tidal wave of evictions going on just now, I do think a Municipal Bank could finance tenants in existing rent-controlled buildings to convert themselves into permanent land trusts and owner-occupied co-ops, thereby taking properties off the open market forever and preserving affordable housing in perpetuity too.

Going a bit further, the terms of financing such land trust/coops could include rules about retrofitting buildings for energy efficiency (replacing windows, adding solar and insulation, improving heating and cooling), adding gray water plumbing systems, establishing rain catchment systems, putting fiber optic wiring into every block and every building to provide a free municipally-owned internet system, and so on. It could even include requirements to plant fruit-bearing trees, opening yards to urban farming, establishing roof gardens where sensible, and more. So the goal of all this would be to lower the cost of living here, to make it possible for people who live here now to stay, and to create social cohesion among neighbors in buildings, between buildings on a block-to-block basis, and slowly but surely make it possible to live more of one’s life outside the pecuniary and punishing logic of wage-labor and endless work.

When we add to the mix the larger scale issues of climate change, the obsolescence of automobiles, oil, and coal as technologies at the heart of our “economic lives,” and the reconfiguration of daily life we’re going to experience as we adapt and adjust to these realities, we really should be getting on with this now, while we still have resources to start the process with. Why not?

Yeah, why not.

Ask Gov. Christie.

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PSEG’s Energy Strong: “Go Massive – Sweep It All Up”

April 8th, 2014 No comments

Did Gov. Christie’s Office Early Involvement Shape Utility Resilience Plans?

Christie Gov.’s Office’s Fingerprints are on the PSEG Plan

Shock Doctrine Applied to Billion Dollar Public Utility Regulatory Review

Was There a Wildstein War Room at BPU?

[Update: 4/10/14 – Holy moly! According to this Bergen Record story, PSEG didn’t even consider sea level rise and climate changeQ

Izzo also said that as the company looks to the future, it sees the need for more work in models by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and other agencies about the effect climate change will have on the state’s coastline and inland rivers.

“There’s a whole slew of assets that, based on new FEMA maps, have some increased risk based on these designations that we haven’t made part of this first request,” Izzo said. ~~~ end update

Back when Gov. Christie was riding high – draped in his blue fleece – responding to the Sandy crisis, I vaguely recall how he demagogued strong public outrage over the utilities’ slow response to restoring power.

I seem to recall the Gov. calling the utilities on the carpet, especially JCP&L, for their poor preparation and performance, and promising reforms.

But now, 18  months later, I don’t think anyone realizes how significant an impact that the Gov.’s intervention may have had on the utility response, including PSEG’s controversial $2.6 billion (over 5 years – $3.9 billion over 10) “Energy Strong” resilience plan now before the Board of Public Utilities.

There are direct fingerprints of the Gov.’s Office on it. I don’t think that has been reported thus far.

So, with a whole new context, i.e. the passage of 18 months, political scandal, and a whole new perspective on how intervention by Gov. Christie’s Office in the GWB toll plan went down, I was just now reading Rate Counsel’s brief opposing the PSEG  Energy Strong  plan.

I was reminded of this infamous quote by then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld:

On the afternoon of September 11, Rumsfeld issued rapid orders to his aides to look for evidence of possible Iraqi involvement in regard to what had just occurred, according to notes taken by senior policy official Stephen Cambone. “Best info fast. Judge whether good enough hit S.H.” — meaning Saddam Hussein — “at same time. Not only UBL” (Osama bin Laden), Cambone’s notes quoted Rumsfeld as saying. “Need to move swiftly — Near term target needs — go massive — sweep it all up. Things related and not.[56][57]

We all know the disaster that became of that Rumsfeld recommendation.

You could say that Rumsfeld was engaging in his own version of what Naomi Klein called the “Shock Doctrine” – i.e. taking advantage of a crisis to ram through a highly unpopular, costly, poorly justified, ideological agenda. Klein provides examples:

At the most chaotic juncture in Iraq’s civil war, a new law is unveiled that would allow Shell and BP to claim the country’s vast oil reserves…. Immediately following September 11, the Bush Administration quietly out-sources the running of the “War on Terror” to Halliburton and Blackwater…. After a tsunami wipes out the coasts of Southeast Asia, the pristine beaches are auctioned off to tourist resorts…. New Orleans’s residents, scattered from Hurricane Katrina, discover that their public housing, hospitals and schools will never be reopened…. These events are examples of “the shock doctrine”: using the public’s disorientation following massive collective shocks – wars, terrorist attacks, or natural disasters — to achieve control by imposing economic shock therapy.

In Rumsfeld’s case for attacking Iraq, this was the stealth Neoliberal imperial agenda laid out in a “Project for a New American Century” – specifically see: Rebuilding America’s Defenses

The reasons I  am reminded of that quote stem from Rate Counsel’s devastating critique of the PSEG Energy Strong proposal.

Could the NJ utilities have interpreted Gov. Christie’s intervention as a green light for them, a la Rumsfled, to “Go massive”? Perhaps so.

Rate Counsel’s critique suggests that PSEG corporate managers engaged in their own form of Shock Doctrine – literally capitalizing on the post Sandy crisis.

Numerous examples of this abuse jump right off the pages of Rate Counsel’s brief:

  • Early political involvement of Gov. Christie’s Office forced the agenda

In a scathing critique, Rate Counsel describes how the PSEG Energy Strong Plan was initially conceived.

Essentially, there was no planning. The chronology shows it was hurried and justified by after the fact rationales. The proposal was driven by  seat of the pants emails, with direct  involvement of Gov. Christie’s Office:

No evidence in the record reflects that the development of the Energy Strong proposal included any analysis of whether the proposed investments were cost-justified and cost-effective. Indeed, there is scant documentation of what criteria and standards, if any, were applied to develop the Energy Strong projects. None of the Energy Strong projects were vetted through the Company’s normal budgeting process.

According to a Company response to an AARP discovery request, management’s communications concerning the “initiation and direction” of the Company’s proposals were “primarily oral,” and the only written communication was a January 11, 2013 e-mail from Jorge Cardenas to a “team” of several other PSE&G employees. .

Mr. Cardenas’ e-mail stated that “[w]e have been asked to prepare a filing which addresses ‘infrastructure hardening,’ which filing was “to be completed by January 18th,” one week from the date of the e-mail. As noted by AARP witness Barbara R. Alexander, while the Energy Strong filing was not completed within the originally contemplated one-week time frame, the entire process of developing this $2.6 billion proposal apparently took place between January 11, 2013 and early February, 2013, when the proposal was considered by the Company’s Board of Directors.

With regard to the content of the electric portion of the filing, the recipients of Mr. Cardenas’ e-mail were directed to consult two documents. First, the recipients of the e-mail were directed to “dust off” materials that had been prepared for a “report to the governor’s office in reference to stations impacted and the cost to repair and also costs to pre-empt the situation from occurring again.”That “report to the governor’s office” consisted in its entirety of three pages of charts identifying Superstorm Sandy-related damage to PSE&G’s electric system and related repair and replacement costs.

Who in the Gov.’s Office was involved? The Office of Inter-Governmental Affairs (Bridget Kelly’s Office). Is there a Wildstein lurking in BPU?

Was There a Wildstein War Room at BPU?

  • a non-existent planning process – “Move Quickly – Go Massive – Sweep It All Up”

There was a shocking lack off planning in developing a multi-billion 10 year investment program.

The involvement of the Gov.’s Office, a remarkably short period of time to develop the plan, the lack of standard analysis, and the fact that the PSEG plan bypassed internal review, suggest, at best, a recklessly poor plan.

At worst, they suggest a cynical opportunity to seek windfall profits – a shock doctrine strategy – on the part of PSEG.

Rate counsel calls it a “wish list”:

The Company is asking for pre-approval of projected costs and a leap of faith that the wish-list put together by the Company’s engineers should prevail over the conclusions of several different independent engineers that recognized better and often cheaper alternatives.

  • fundamental technical flaws

How to respond to the “climate change resilience” issue is fascinating, and raises a host of complex new scientific, economic, and policy issues.

Rate Counsel raises many of those complex issues, but ignores perhaps the most significant issues, such as:

  • would we be better off investing billions of ratepayer dollars in reducing greenhouse gas emissions (renewable energy,  conservation and efficiency), instead of trying to “harden” inherently vulnerable infrastructure?
  • what are the social costs of climate change? Avoidance of those costs are benefits;
  • are there better ways to finance the costs of adaptation, like a carbon tax which also would incentivize emissions reductions?
  • can regulatory mandates achieve more cost effective and equitable results? (e.g. polluter pays)
  • how does the precautionary principle apply in risk management and capital investment planning?

But Rate Counsel does expose a series of fundamental flaws in the PSEG plan. They are too numerous to go in to detail here – those interested should read the whole brief.

But they include a failure to consider the probability of future extreme storms, to project the impacts of those storms, or to evaluate whether the proposed “hardening” investments would prevent damage to energy infrastructure.

  • bypassing PSEG’s own internal project review and selection process

The PSEG proposal bypassed PSEG’s own internal review processes – and with no apparent justification:

Electric Program Review, and Selection Process

PSE&G has a long-standing, multi-level review process for capital projects proposed by its utility operating personnel. Known as the Investment Evaluation System (“IES”), PSE&G’s internal capital spending review process involves scrutiny of both the technical and financial aspects of proposed projects, prior to implementation …

As described above, the Energy Strong Program includes numerous capital projects which are both costly and significant in scope. However, PSE&G did not follow its rigorous IES process for the review and selection of its proposed Energy Strong electric projects. P-2R, p. 9. PSE&G claims that its use of a less rigorous review process was necessary because Energy Strong’s “benefits fall outside of our current scorecard metrics.” P-2R, p. 9; RCR-E-86. So, rather than vetting the proposed Energy Strong projects through the IES process, the Energy Strong projects included in the Company’s filing were selected by a group of personnel from PSE&G’s Asset Management, Engineering and Field Operations staff. P-2R, p. 6.

Rate Counsel concludes that the BPU approval of PSEG plan:

will result in a guaranteed return to shareholders, a transfer of risk from shareholders to ratepayers, and a further erosion of the integrity of the regulatory process.

In sum, it appears that PSEG decided to “Go Massive” in a bald faced Shock Doctrine strategy.

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Chart of the Day – “Leadership”

April 8th, 2014 No comments

Where Is It?

gas tax

Source: Tom Wright, Regional Plan Assc. Ted X London (December 2013)

Dear Tom –

Nice talk, but why did you flat out lie about the reason for cancellation of the ARC?

After demonstrating $18 billion in residential property value increases in NJ that would result from the $12 billion ARC investment, you said this:

But the tunnel was cancelled because of funding concerns, because there wasn’t enough money to do it.

Surely you must know that Gov. Christie cancelled the ARC so that he could reallocate funds to NJ transportation projects to avoid a gas tax required to replenish the depleted Transportation Trust Fund.

I also was interested in your “value capture” ideas, having examined that issue back in my early days as a transportation planner at a regional MPO in Binghamton NY.

My work looked at capturing the increment of value created by public transit investments – defined as increases in commercial activity at downtown business locations.

This was in the mid 1980’s, when President Reagan was talking about terminating federal operating subsidies for public transit, so public transit systems were looking to diversify revenue sources.

Curious that your “value capture” analysis was limited to the residential sector as measured by increase in property values.

But how on earth did you ignore the huge commercial real estate property value increases? (and associated commercial activity)?

Your narrow focus lets the corporate real estate barons off the hook for providing revenues to support transit investments, while unfairly allocating that burden to residential homeowners.

That approach would tax the middle class and let the billionaires off the hook.

Is this work published somewhere? Am I mischaracterizing it?

Why present it in London instead of Trenton?

Your friend,

Wolfe

ps – and just what is wrong with the old public authority model of finance?

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Gov. Christie Forgot All About Barnegat Bay In Sandy Rush To Rebuild

April 6th, 2014 No comments

Failed leadership, warped priorities, and regulatory loopholes allowed that to happen

After nearly 18 months of Sandy recovery, there are some moves to get the bay restoration program moving again. …

Like other speakers at the Ocean County College event, Kauffman suggested this era of rebuilding after Sandy is an opportune time to fix pollution problems by including new “green infrastructure” in rebuilt neighborhoods.

But given the pace of rebuilding public infrastructure damaged from the storm, there has not been much time to incorporate those changes in a big way, noted Angela Andersen, Long Beach Township’s recycling coordinator. ~~~ Pollution, Sandy  Threaten Barnegat Bay, a $4 billion economic engine  (APP 4/5/14)

Before Sandy struck on October 29, 2012, Gov. Christie’s stated #1 environmental priority was his 10 point Barnegat Bay Management Plan. Remember that?

The DEP had launched a host of mostly public relations activities in support of that plan. Recall “The Barnegat Blitz”?

The residents of the region, the press, the legislature, academic institutions, US EPA, and coastal conservation groups all were focused on what nationally recognized  Rutgers professor Mike Kennish described as the Bay’s “insidious ecological decline” and potential ecological collapse.

Proliferating jellyfish were the symbol of that collapse.

Pressure was mounting  and consensus was beginning to emerge for the need for a federal Clean Water Act imposed solution called a “TMDL”, for “Total Maximum Daily Load”.

Here is what I was writing about all that in the weeks prior to Sandy:

Sandy changed all of that –

But it didn’t have to be that way.

I’ve been writing about that from many perspectives, with numerous specific criticisms of how what I call Gov. Christie’s “Rebuild Madness” is failing: wasting billions of taxpayer dollars, putting more people and property at risk, and missing huge opportunities for land use reform and risk reduction.

Many mistakes were made  – that’s water under the bridge – but they are being repeated and compounded as we speak.

The latest effort is an attempt to build awareness and support for the economic benefits of the bay in the business community.

Economist Kauffman spoke at a first-ever event hosted by the Conserve Wildlife Foundation of New Jersey, bringing together local business owners with an interest in the bay, local government and agency workers. Foundation executive director David Wheeler said the intent is to build a business constituency for stepping up restoration efforts on the bay and in its 660-square mile watershed.

There is nothing inherently wrong with trying to build a business constituency, but that strategy will fail miserably unless conservation groups  have the spine to tell the business community that they will have to pay more to do business, they will have to restrain their economic aspirations, and they will have to accept far more regulation and regional planning.

Thus far, I see none of that.

And Straw men like this must stop:

But another environmental professional cautioned against fixating on restricting new development as a solution.

“I’ve heard that if development just stopped, everything would be fine,” said Marshall Robert, an engineer whose Asbury Park firm RowBear helps clients deal with environmental issues. In fact, Robert stressed, “if we were to preserve every last acre, that wouldn’t solve the problem … All you’re doing is maintaining pollution to the bay.”

Shame on you Mr. Robert, because no one ever claimed that all we need is a ban on new development and everything wold be “fine”.

Here are elements of the path to getting back on track. I’ve written about each one many times:

  • Revitalize Citizen and Conservation Group Leadership
  • Eliminate the Right to rebuild under CAFRA and Flood Hazard Act
  • Close the CAFRA loophole so that individual homes/projects get DEP reviews
  • Restore the Coastal Management Program at DEP
  • Prepare a Climate adaptation plan, in light of sea level rise, based on a policy of strategic retreat
  • Form a Coastal Commission to regionally plan, coordinate funding, and regulate development
  • Invoke the Clean Water Act – TMDL Program: enforceable pollution reductions & timetables
  • DEP must start regulatory integration and enforcement of multiple silo programs
  • Establish a Stable Source of Funding based on realistic huge costs of restoration
  • Science Driven Response – “seriously ramp things up”

Until all these things occur simultaneously and people get serious, the Bay’s fate is sealed.

It’s dead.

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$34,500

April 3rd, 2014 No comments

The Cost of a DEP PR Stunt

Just mention “SUPERSTORM SANDY” and anything is possible

 Will That Replace “SUPERSTORM SANDY” Tree Blowdowns?

blowdown

No big surprise that the record breaking Christie DEP Press Office issued another typical self serving press release yesterday, announcing a tree seedling giveaway initiative, see:

But, hey, wait a minute. That sounds great.

DEP is going to replace the trees blown down by Sandy? Really? All of them? A New Reforestation Program? Wow.

But, of course the DEP has no intention of doing any of that – the DEP press release was a steaming pile of bullshit from the get go.

But, that fact didn’t stop our intrepid press corps – who went all Steve Colbert on it – remember it was Colbert who famously described the press’ role:

The President makes decisions. He’s the decider. The press secretary announces those decisions, and you people of the press type those decisions down. Make, announce, type. Just put ’em through a spell check and go home. Get to know your family again. Make love to your wife. Write that novel you got kicking around in your head. You know, the one about the intrepid Washington reporter with the courage to stand up to the administration? You know, fiction!

I guess because the DEP press release blasted “CHRISTIE ADMINISTRATION” and “SUPERSTORM SANDY” in the headline – and because the press knows nothing about forests or numbers – well, I guess the editors and transcribers thought it was important.

The press even swallowed DEP’s spin and described the one shot giveaway as a “new program”.

It generously might be called a “new initiative” instead of a a “one shot”, but a real “program” requires institutional structure, goals, objectives and plans, funding, and ongoing continuing effect. DEP is providing none of that.

And here’s the kicker – if you actually read the DEP press release and think for just one second, the bullshit is made SOOO obvious.

This is an exaggerated, spun, one shot, microscopically small bore initiative, and the numbers make that obvious.

DEP Commissioner Martin, a business consultant who knows the cost of everything, was sure to mention this in the press release:

The State Forestry Service’s Forest Nursery opened in Jackson in 1982 where foresters grow 500,000 trees annually. The nursery sells the majority of trees in packets of 100 to private landowners, including families and businesses, who use the trees to reforest their land. Packet prices start at $30.

So, let’s do the math and see how much this big Sandy tree replacement “program” might cost:

(115,000 seedlings)/(100 seedlings/packet) X ($30/packet) = $34,500

The sad part is that we tried to get Sandy tree blowdown considered during the recent legislative debate on the “Forest Stewardship” bill see:

Blowdowns undermined the rationale for that bill that the forestry people wanted as cover for harvesting trees on state lands i.e. commercial logging.

WE also noted that the bill lacked  “afforestation” and urban forestry objectives, see:

But our blowdown, urban foresty, and reforestation arguments were conveniently ignored by DEP and the press.

But now that it makes a convenient PR stunt, all of a sudden DEP is talking about huge number of blowdowns. And creating a totally false impression that they have a “new program” in place to reforest NJ.

And their spin gets transcribed. So, some facts and context are in order:

  • NJ lost millions of trees in Sandy.
  • NJ is spending BILLIONS of dollars rebuilding in the same vulnerable locations.

How does a $34,000 stunt stack up against that agenda?

I guess reforestation and urban forestry are real priorities of the Christie DEP! (snark!)

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