Cycle of Subsidies For Building In Hazardous Locations Must End
Retreat Just A Question of When, not Whether
[Updates below]
Back in December, when FEMA released its original “draft Advisory Baseflood Elevation” (ABFE) maps, quoting FEMA’s own policy, we wrote:
FEMA just released new flood maps in the wake of Sandy (see the AP story: FEMA – NJ Coastal flood risk worse than thought).
The maps are interactive and you can view them here.
The maps make a mockery of FEMA’s “Climate Change Adaptation Policy Statement” issued on Jan. 23, 2012. That Policy states:
While the scope, severity, and pace of future climate change impacts are difficult to predict, it is clear that potential changes could afffect our Agency’s ability to fulfill its mission. The challenges posed by climate change, such as more intense storms, frequent heavy precipitation, heat waves, drought, extreme flooding, and higer sea levels could significantly alter the types and magnitudes of hazards faced by communities and the emergency management professionals that serve them. […]
The need to address risks associated with future disaster-related events, including those that may be linked to climate change, is inherent to FEMA’s long-term vision of promoting physical and economic loss reduction and life saving measures. Working within existing statutes and authorities, FEMA will strive to be consistent in the Agency’s incorporation of climate change adaptation actions and activities in on-going plans, policies, and procedures.
Well, the final drafts released by FEMA yesterday relax various designations, compounding those original errors.
In shrinking the maps – which should have been expanded to reflect larger and higher flood zones to reflect climate change and sea level rise – FEMA is responding not to the best available science, as they are legally and morally obligated to do given risks to human life.
Instead, FEMA is responding to bi-partisan and highly irresponsible political pressure by public officials at all levels of government and homeowners who don’t want to pay the true costs of their lifestyles, but instead want continuing federal subsides to live in dangerous locations. These local officials and selfish homeowners were assisted by well organized anti-government yahoos, e..g “Stop FEMA Now!”
And there is little doubt that Gov. Christie led this reckless attack (see: Gov. Christie Is Dead Wrong on FEMA Map Revisions).
FEMA not only caved, they failed to even acknowledge their own Climate Change Adaptation Policy and dodged responsibility by trying to sift their federal responsibility to local government (NJ Spotlight story):
FEMA’s McDonnell responds that storms similar to Sandy were used in the modeling. But he says that while FEMA is considering including climate change in its future maps, that consideration is currently left up to states and local communities. “If they’re looking at our product as a minimum standard, they can always be more restrictive,” he explained. “The higher they go and the safer they are, ultimately, the more resilient they’ll be, and they could be saving money in insurance premiums down the road.”
But that political pressure is no excuse – and addressing these risks are a federal responsibility of FEMA’s.
Shame on all those public officials and shame on FEMA – from the Congressional delegation, NJ legislature, to the Governor, to local Mayors.
Instead of directly calling a spade a spade (i.e. like this: Rutgers Sea Level Rise Maps Being Ignored by DEP) it does not help when academics – who clearly know better – dodge and evade the real issues with these kind of technical responses, which only confuse the public and fail to hold decision makers accountable: (NJ Spotlight story)
Lathrop — who runs the Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis at Rutgers — has helped develop an online, satellite-based flood-mapping tool that shows what areas would flood if you do account for sea level rise.
He says that whether residents and municipalities choose to rely on the FEMA maps or more cautious standards like the ones his department has drafted depends on whether they’re more focused on short-term rebuilding or longer-term planning. “It really is a question of over what time frame people are making their decisions, and what risk they’re willing to accept,” he said.
Of course Lathrop is correct, but he is still evasive.
Here’s how the flood plain management professionals frame the issue – I urge you to read the statement, which outlines specific needed actions – in its entirely:
Right now is the best window of opportunity to incorporate actions to make those communities impacted by Hurricane Sandy more resilient from future flood events. In the devastating aftermath of a significant event like Sandy, there also exists a window of opportunity for communities to make wise redevelopment choices that will help support the economic and social vitality for generations to come. While such choices can be politically unpopular in the short term when the focus is to get back to normal, choosing a better path now can lead to reduced costs, misery, suffering, and hardship for families and businesses alike. It is much harder during a “sunny day”, or after the event has been forgotten, to make needed changes than it is right now when people are faced with the consequences of the storm and are more receptive to significant – although sometimes disruptive actions – that can result in effective mitigation. There are admirable examples of communities in the nation that chose a more resilient future in their darkest hours after a devastating event.
(technical end note: without understanding the model and looking at site specific applications, we have no way to judge whether some of the shrinkage in the V “wave zones” is justified scientifically. However, if the revised model was revised to account for buildings on the barrier islands that would serve to dissipate wave energy, we see that as providing a perverse incentive to build on barrier islands. That way, buildings on the islands would increase development potential; behind them along the bays. That is absurd – and the bay homes got hit with some of the worst flooding, as the storm surge cut through several points on the island, including 3 in Mantoloking. We are beyond our expertise here.)
[Update 1 – you can view the before and after maps at this link
Sandy surge topped portions of the barrier islands, most famously at 3 points in Mantoloking. It is hard to tell, but it looks like the bayside homes that got hammer with that surge (and waves) from overtopping got eliminated from the V Zones. -end update]
[Update 2 – 6/19/13 – Asbury Park Presseditorial gets it right: Flood mapping: Be conservative
FEMA maps also fail to take sea-level rise or climate change into account. The Rutgers flood maps do. They suggest how rising seas could make future storms worse. …
The state and municipalities should take the Rutgers maps into account when establishing standards for rebuilding. They show the bigger picture and provide a better, a long-term perspective. Forewarned is to be forearmed.